Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.6 | 10.2% | 55 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.0 | 7.1% | 38 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 13.7 | 26% | 140 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.4 | 13.9% | 75 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.6 | 9.1% | 49 | 0.47% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.3 | 8.5% | 46 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5.6 | 10.9% | 59 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.3 | 14.3% | 77 | 0.74% |
| All ages | 41 | 51.4 | 100% | 539 | 0.52% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 31027 | 238912 | 725 | 187 | 482 |
| May 07 | 31061 | 239093 | 726 | 187 | 477 |
| May 08 | 31084 | 239169 | 726 | 187 | 446 |
| May 09 | 31128 | 239333 | 726 | 187 | 459 |
| May 10 | 31189 | 239654 | 727 | 187 | 489 |
| May 11 | 31277 | 239936 | 728 | 187 | 553 |
| May 12 | 31318 | 240066 | 728 | 187 | 539 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 18989 | 158508 | 712 | 186 | 174 |
| May 07 | 19011 | 158647 | 714 | 186 | 172 |
| May 08 | 19022 | 158708 | 715 | 187 | 167 |
| May 09 | 19034 | 158799 | 715 | 187 | 166 |
| May 10 | 19058 | 158954 | 716 | 187 | 175 |
| May 11 | 19092 | 159243 | 717 | 187 | 200 |
| May 12 | 19101 | 159320 | 717 | 187 | 196 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.4 | 7.1% | 14 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.3 | 6.1% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.6 | 10.7% | 21 | 0.3% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.9 | 13.3% | 26 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.3 | 12.8% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.7 | 11.2% | 22 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.7 | 19.4% | 38 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.1 | 19.4% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 9 | 19.0 | 100% | 196 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 13669 | 92155 | 562 | 144 | 92 |
| May 07 | 13677 | 92189 | 563 | 144 | 93 |
| May 08 | 13686 | 92297 | 563 | 144 | 87 |
| May 09 | 13704 | 92353 | 564 | 144 | 97 |
| May 10 | 13722 | 92429 | 564 | 144 | 109 |
| May 11 | 13732 | 92523 | 564 | 144 | 114 |
| May 12 | 13743 | 92559 | 565 | 144 | 121 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.5% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.1 | 9.1% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.1% | 11 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.1 | 9.1% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.6 | 13.2% | 16 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.4 | 9.1% | 11 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.4 | 19% | 23 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.3 | 28.9% | 35 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 11 | 12.1 | 100% | 121 | 0.27% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 35636 | 317970 | 1039 | 186 | 439 |
| May 07 | 35648 | 318178 | 1042 | 186 | 396 |
| May 08 | 35666 | 318367 | 1042 | 186 | 373 |
| May 09 | 35707 | 318657 | 1043 | 186 | 376 |
| May 10 | 35862 | 318912 | 1044 | 186 | 512 |
| May 11 | 35923 | 319265 | 1045 | 186 | 547 |
| May 12 | 35988 | 319397 | 1047 | 186 | 577 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 8.6 | 14.4% | 83 | 0.7% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.7 | 11.4% | 66 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 7.7 | 14.7% | 85 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 6.9 | 13.2% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 7.7 | 12.8% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 5.3 | 9.5% | 55 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.7 | 10.6% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.4 | 13.3% | 77 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 65 | 55.0 | 100% | 577 | 0.49% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 132205 | 2495201 | 2578 | 516 | 3490 |
| May 07 | 132488 | 2497437 | 2578 | 516 | 3400 |
| May 08 | 132675 | 2498553 | 2578 | 516 | 3264 |
| May 09 | 133052 | 2500412 | 2581 | 516 | 3366 |
| May 10 | 133469 | 2504023 | 2585 | 516 | 3529 |
| May 11 | 134084 | 2507016 | 2589 | 516 | 4035 |
| May 12 | 134580 | 2508909 | 2591 | 516 | 4335 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 64 | 53.6 | 13.6% | 588 | 0.98% |
| 10-19 | 69 | 54.9 | 15% | 649 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 71 | 58.0 | 15.1% | 654 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 97 | 71.3 | 17.6% | 761 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 83 | 65.7 | 15.8% | 684 | 1.04% |
| 50-59 | 42 | 40.6 | 10.1% | 436 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 38 | 29.9 | 7.2% | 311 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 32 | 24.3 | 5.8% | 252 | 0.51% |
| All ages | 496 | 398.1 | 100% | 4335 | 0.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 06 | 1625066 | 14563256 | 64098 | 14497 | 18508 |
| May 07 | 1626631 | 14572781 | 64125 | 14498 | 18261 |
| May 08 | 1627714 | 14580210 | 64151 | 14499 | 17595 |
| May 09 | 1630189 | 14592393 | 64191 | 14500 | 18376 |
| May 10 | 1633220 | 14611500 | 64226 | 14502 | 20231 |
| May 11 | 1636394 | 14630258 | 64270 | 14502 | 22721 |
| May 12 | 1639365 | 14640007 | 64292 | 14502 | 24440 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 297 | 241.0 | 10.3% | 2510 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 308 | 256.1 | 11.4% | 2775 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 428 | 321.9 | 13.7% | 3341 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 498 | 378.1 | 15.9% | 3875 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 423 | 327.9 | 13.7% | 3341 | 0.48% |
| 50-59 | 358 | 296.6 | 12.5% | 3045 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 336 | 263.0 | 10.9% | 2661 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 322 | 279.6 | 11.8% | 2877 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 2971 | 2365.9 | 100% | 24440 | 0.42% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-06-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14491"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges